Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to a record 36 billion metric tons this year, a study by 49 researchers from 10 countries found, showing the failure of governments to rein in the main greenhouse gas.
A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important cause of climate change.
Over the last 40 years, carbon dioxide emissions have more than doubled: In 1970, global carbon dioxide emissions were approximately 15.6 billion metric tons; by the year 2010, that number has increased to 33 billion metric tons.
The scientific report was released Tuesday assessing the climate situation in the United States. “Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present,” the scientists declared.
Others might disagree. According to Eric Radley, a founding member of environmental campaign group, humans are not to blame for global warming. Radley insists “there is no scientific proof that CO2 emissions are the dominant cause of the minor warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.”
The report is the latest in a series of dire warnings about how the effects of global warming that had been long foreseen by climate scientists are already affecting the planet. Its region-by-region documentation of changes occurring in the United States, and of future risks, makes clear that few places will be unscathed.
However, Steve Tobak, a scientist at a California university, points out the lack of evidence, saying, “There is some correlation, but little evidence, to support a direct causal relationship between CO2 and global temperature through the millennia. There are some weather data that fundamentally contradict the certainty that human-caused CO2 emissions are the main cause of global warming.”
Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters
The effects of human-induced climate change are being felt in every corner of the United States, the report indicated, with water growing scarcer in dry regions, torrential rains increasing in wet regions, heat waves becoming more common and more severe, wildfires growing worse, and forests dying under assault from heat-loving insects.
The U.S. has sustained 151 weather/climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. The total cost of these 151 events exceeds $1 trillion.
Some scientists and science writers, however, were just as quick to caution that we cannot really attribute any single weather event to climate change. Andrew McKibben, a science writer, drew a clear line against attributing weather disasters directly to recent man-made warming, noting that there had been periods in the past when these events occurred during cooler years: “There remains far too much natural variability in the frequency and potency of rare and powerful weather events.”
Tropical Cyclones: Tornadoes and Hurricanes
Tornadoes and hurricanes have been menacing the U.S. as long as anyone can remember, but the frequency and severity of the storms, as well as the monetary damages the storms have caused, have increased in recent years, as recent studies indicated.
The devastation from Hurricane Sandy rang in at $65 billion, leaving 72 people dead and more than 6 million homeless.
However, Hurricane Sandy was a Saffir-Simpson Category 1 hurricane (based on intensity, Category 1 is the mildest and Category 5 the most intense), much milder than the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, or the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 that killed at least 8,000 people.
The link between Hurricane Sandy and climate change, therefore, “is just not supported by science at this time,” said Chris Francis, one of the scientists who looked at the link between climate change and extreme weather events. Noting that climate change has an effect on the weather around us by raising the average temperature of the planet, he thinks “it is a big stretch to go from [acknowledging the rising temperatures] to blaming Sandy on climate change.”
Floods
Key West, South Florida, is one of the most vulnerable places to flooding. Many homes were damaged or completely destroyed during a 13-month flooding in 2005, and talk of global warming mounted after those back-to-back bad seasons.
However, no hurricanes have directly hit since. Widespread discussion about climate change subsided. Florida remains as one of the eighteen states nationwide that haven’t adopted plans to cut carbon emissions or taken other steps to combat the effects of climate change.
“We count the tornadoes, we count hurricanes. None of those are increasing. Floods are not increasing,” said Andrea Slade. “The only people who believe in climate change are the insurance companies, who want to keep raising home insurance rates.”
Winter Storms
As the northeastern U.S. braces for the latest in a seemingly endless series of winter storms and severe snowfall, research has shown that the persistent cold weather suffered by much of the United States this 2013-2014 winter may be a result of a rapidly warming Arctic.
Others, however, argue that the cold winder is a proof of a lack of a changing climate. “The temperature extremes in the two winters in the U.S. were opposite,” said atmospheric scientist Kevin Walsh. “I cannot say that the warming of the average global temperature played a role in either of these unusual winters in the U.S.”
Attributing a human influence to individual weather events like winter storms is an emerging area of research that is acknowledged by those involved to be extremely challenging and is questioned by many more, because so many factors are at work. Walsh summed it up bluntly: “There’s no simple link - we can’t say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ this is climate change.”
What’s Next?
Putting a limit on heat-trapping emissions, encouraging the use of healthier, cleaner energy technologies, and increasing energy efficiency seem to be the predominant next steps to reduce man-made warming.
States like Florida are required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly a third over the next 15 years.
Rick Scott, Florida’s GOP governor, struggled to meet that requirement and questioned whether man-made climate change is real and significant. “I have not been convinced that there is any man-made climate change... Nothing’s convinced me that there is.”